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Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 8/27-8/29
2010-08-27
The final full weekend of August baseball is upon us, and for bettors, that is a fairly important benchmark, since typically, prices for favorites start to rise significantly at this point in the year. We saw it already a few times this past week in some mismatched series’. Savvy handicappers have to recognize these spots where the “chalk” may or may not be worth your betting dollar anymore. While they are typically the team in the must-win scenario, no one ever gets ahead by paying too much for something. With that in mind, let’s take a look at this weekend’s action to see where the value may actually be, and also reveal our list of Top StatFox Power Trends for you to consider in your wagering.
Four of baseball’s six divisions go into the weekend with a four-game or less separation for the top spot. The only teams with more comfortable leads to play with over the final month are Texas, who is 8.5-games up on Oakland in the A.L. West, and San Diego, who leads San Francisco by 6-games in the N.l. West. Otherwise, you’d have to conclude that we’re all in for some exciting September races. That can be viewed two ways by a bettor of course. For one, you have the chance to bet on some high stakes games the rest of the way, a month of playoff tune-ups if you will. For two, the games involving contenders and non-contenders can often show over-inflated lines. Let’s see what we have to choose from this weekend.
In the National League, only one of the eight series’ matches two postseason contenders against one another, and it is a great series. Philadelphia, who is 3-games under .500 on the road and trails the Braves in the East by that same amount, heads to San Diego to take on the red-hot Padres, who have been nearly unbeatable at home. This series figures to show some stellar pitching matchups, starting with the opener featuring Roy Oswalt and Mat Latos. The Phils are also looking up in the wildcard standings right now but trail the Giants by just a half-game.
The rest of the N.L. slate featuring playoff contenders are series’ that are candidates for potential over-pricing. The Cardinals will be in Washington and expected to be sizeable favorites in all three games. However, note that St. Louis is just 3-8 in its L11 games and already lost the series opener on Thursday. The Reds are hosting the Cubs, and returning home for the first time after a successful 6-3 West coast trip. The Cubs played well this week in Washington but are still 20-games under .500 and have begun rebuilding. The Braves, off a sweep at the hands of Colorado, play host to the pesky Marlins, whom they’ve had a competitive rivalry with over the last few years. Florida is hot, 7-2 in its L9 games. Finally, the Giants will be at home hosting the Diamondbacks, who are an ugly 20-42 on the road, including 0-3 in San Francisco this season.
The American League features one huge high profile series, and it could be do or die for the Red Sox in that matchup, as they take to the road in Tampa. Boston is 5.5-games back of both the A.L. East and wildcard leads heading into the weekend, but needs to improve its 4-8 record versus the Rays. Boston could reduce those deficits over the next 13 days. After this series ends Sunday, the Red Sox and Rays will meet for the final time in the regular season from Sept. 6-8 at Fenway Park.
While that series is going on, the Rays will have their eye on the scoreboard and what is happening in Chicago, where the White Sox will be hosting the Yankees. New York is deadlocked with Tampa atop the East and for the league’s best overall mark, however, the series is just as important, or perhaps even more important to the Sox, who trail the Twins by 3.5-games in the Central. Minnesota is in Seattle, so it clearly has the edge on paper this weekend. Finally, in the A.L. West, Texas puts its 8.5-game lead on the line when it hosts the A’s, its closest competitor. This could be the last gasp for Oakland in 2010.
It figures to be a great weekend of playoff-like baseball. Here’s a look at the Top StatFox Power Trends that will impact the action.
ST LOUIS at WASHINGTON
CHICAGO CUBS at CINCINNATI
HOUSTON at NY METS
FLORIDA at ATLANTA
PITTSBURGH at MILWAUKEE
LA DODGERS at COLORADO
PHILADELPHIA at SAN DIEGO
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO
DETROIT at TORONTO
KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND
BOSTON at TAMPA BAY
OAKLAND at TEXAS
NY YANKEES at CHI WHITE SOX
BALTIMORE at LA ANGELS
MINNESOTA at SEATTLE
MLB: Powerful bullpen system shows Nationals as play
2010-08-23
With manager Lou Pinella announcing his accelerated retirement on Sunday, it’s become official…the Cubs’ season is an utter mess, and the immediate future, meaning Monday night’s game in Washington, doesn’t look any better. Chicago is up against one of the more powerful bullpen betting systems that StatFox has to offer. It seems as if bettors are jumping on this opportunity too, as they have pushed what was an opening line of Washington -145 at Sportsbook.com all the way up to -160. It could go higher too, so turn your attention to this one before you miss out on a good price.
If you haven’t been following the Cubs lately, the 2010 season has become a train wreck. The roster has been decimated by trades, injuries, and overall poor play. At 23-games under .500, Pinella’s former team won just five of his last 25 games. In the most recent loss, yesterday at home to Atlanta, the Cubs’ bullpen was ravaged for nine runs in three innings of work. You have to wonder whether or not the 16-5 defeat may have made up Pinella’s mind earlier than expected.
At the same time, the Nationals’ bullpen has been pitching very well of late, and comes into Monday night’s contest with a respectable 3.55 ERA & 1.338 WHIP overall. In the last five games, the relief staff has yielded just three runs in 15 innings. That success leads to what has been a highly profitable StatFox Super Situation that could impact Monday night’s game. It reads as follows:
Play Against - Road teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last 5 games.
(59-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.6%, +37.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -120.6
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (11-1, +8.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-12, +15.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (148-89, +29.4 units).
In the Cubs' last visit to Nationals Park, they swept a Washington club playing its first series under interim manager Jim Riggleman. The Cubs are hoping for similar results in this season's trip to the nation's capital as they begin the post-Lou Piniella era. With coach Mike Quade taking over as interim manager, Chicago begins a six-game trip Monday against the Nationals.
With Quade moving from the third-base coaching box to the dugout for the rest of the year, the Cubs give the ball to rookie right-hander Casey Coleman (0-1, 7.82 ERA).
Coming off a 2-4 trip that ended with Sunday's 6-0 loss to Philadelphia, the Nationals (53-71) will counter with Livan Hernandez (8-8, 3.06) as they open a seven-game homestand. The veteran right-hander, though, is 0-3 with a 6.32 ERA in his last three starts at Nationals Park after going 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA in his first 10 home outings this season.
Hernandez, 11-6 with a 3.84 ERA against Chicago, receives among the lowest run support in the NL at 3.39 per game. Washington has scored four runs in his last three outings.
Washington has won four of six against Chicago since last season's matchup at Nationals Park.
Monday night’s first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET as part of a trimmed down betting board of 10 games for the night at Sportsbook.com.
MLB: Boston guns for season sweep of Angels
2010-08-19
The Angels are nearly a .500 team heading into Thursday’s game versus the Red Sox, but if not for the woeful season series versus Boston, they would be much better, perhaps even still in the playoff hunt. Los Angeles has lost all nine games to Boston in 2010, and a win by the Red Sox tonight would complete an unusual season sweep. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com believe it will happen, with the Red Sox playing as -145 favorites behind Josh Beckett.
There may be enough reasons to suspect the season sweep won’t happen though. First off, Boston (69-52) hasn't won more than three straight games since June. Secondly, Beckett has been hit hard in both of his last two starts, yielding 13 runs in 9-2/3 innings against Texas and the Yankees. Thirdly, there are several strong StatFox Systems and/or Trends favoring the Angels in tonight’s matchup.
The system reads as follows and focuses on Beckett’s struggles:
• Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA ANGELS) - with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (AL). (35-15 since 1997.) (70%, +31.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The Angels will turn to Ervin Santana (12-8, 3.99 ERA) to cool off the Boston bats. The right-hander pitched well at Fenway on May 4, limiting the Red Sox to one run over seven innings, but wound up without a decision in a 5-1 loss. He is 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA in seven starts versus Boston. Santana has won four of his last five starts overall, including a 7-2 home victory Saturday over Toronto in which he allowed one run, three hits and four walks in seven innings. He also boasts a strong performance record against the league’s best recently:
• SANTANA is 15-5 (+10.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was SANTANA 5.0, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 1*)
Besides the current opponent, the other good news for the Red Sox is that they got 2008 AL MVP Dustin Pedroia back from a broken left foot Tuesday. They have been dealing with injury problems all season long and found out on Wednesday that Mike Cameron will have season-ending surgery to repair a torn abdominal muscle. Fellow outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury also may not play again this year after re-aggravating a broken rib in his back last week.
The Red Sox won 7-5 on Wednesday night, improving to 9-0 in the season series with Los Angeles. Boston has averaged 7.3 runs while batting .327 in those games.
The Angels, meanwhile, will now try to avoid their fifth losing streak this season of at least four games. Two of the previous four skids concluded with sweeps at the hands of Boston.
The total for Thursday’s game is set at 9.5, and that wagering option also shows a unique trend relating to Boston’s dominance in the series:
• SCIOSCIA is 14-4 OVER (+9.5 Units) in road games revenging 6 or more straight losses vs opponent in last 2 years as the manager of LA ANGELS. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.5, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 1*)
Look for the first pitch from Boston at 7:10 PM ET.
MLB: Handicapping signs point to Johnson, Florida
2010-08-19
The Marlins and Pirates continue a 4-game set in Pittsburgh on Wednesday night and so far the teams have split two 6-run decisions, with Florida taking the latest encounter in shutout fashion on Tuesday night. That win, a key system, several strong trends, and stud pitcher Josh Johnson going for the Marlins are good signs of a potential repeat performance on Wednesday night. This game is certainly worthy of your consideration, both on the money line and run line. Sportsbook.com currently lists Florida as a -162 favorite, with an accompanying run line of -1.5 (-105).
Johnson didn't look anything like a Cy Young Award contender his last time out, failing to escape the fourth inning in his worst start in more than three years. The right-hander gave up six runs and 10 hits over 3 2-3 innings, failing to record a strikeout in a 7-2 loss at Cincinnati.
Following that rough outing with another seems rather unlikely, as he faces the Pirates and their NL-worst offense. Johnson's ERA has dropped from easily the best in the majors to fourth, but the Marlins (58-60) won't be surprised if he rebounds Wednesday at PNC Park. Pittsburgh is averaging 3.43 runs and hitting .241, both last in the NL.
The Pirates (40-79) mustered six hits against Ricky Nolasco and two relievers in a 6-0 loss Tuesday that evened the four-game set at 1-all. The Marlins held a closed-door meeting after Monday's 7-1 loss.
It's no surprise Pittsburgh has struggled to hit the premier pitching in the NL, but the numbers are still staggering. The nine pitchers other than Johnson that make up the league's top 10 in ERA are 8-2 with a 1.22 ERA in 12 starts against the Pirates.
Aside from who Pittsburgh faces, the presence of Ross Ohlendorf (1-9, 3.95) on the mound seems to guarantee the Pirates' bats will go cold. No starter who has pitched 50 innings has received less support than the 2.24 runs Ohlendorf averages.
The following money line system from FoxSheets gives Florida about an 80% chance of winning tonight, based upon Johnson’s prowess and Pittsburgh’s offensive ineptitude.
Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (PITTSBURGH) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season. (68-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +40.9 units. Rating = 3*)
As indicated earlier, this is also a good potential run line spot, and a completely separate StatFox system will be looking for its seventh straight win behind the Marlins this evening:
Play On - Road teams against a 1.5 run line (FLORIDA) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=3.70 to 4.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. (47-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.3%, +33.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0, +6.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-8, +31.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (95-46, +37.5 units).
The powerful information doesn’t stop there though, as numerous trends seem to indicate that Pittsburgh is in over its head for tonight’s game:
• RUSSELL is 28-69 (-26.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better as the manager of PITTSBURGH. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.2, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
Of course, stranger things than a mild baseball upset on a Wednesday night in August have occurred in sports, but it certainly does look like as solid of a play as they come. We’ll see what happens when the Marlins and Pirates throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET tonight from PNC Park.
AL Playoff Races
2010-08-19
Now that the All-Star game has passed and the trade deadline is approaching, all eyes in baseball are focused on the pennant races. As “the dog days of August” approach, here’s a look at what baseball fans can expect to see in the American League divisional and wild card races.
AL West: Texas has continued to separate from the rest of the pack, now holding a seven game lead over Los Angeles. Seattle has fallen 19 games back and is out of the race after a dismal offensive showing this season. For a while, it appeared to be a two-team race between Texas and Los Angeles, who has had a stranglehold on the division in recent years. However, Oakland has shown signs of life, winning 8 of their last 10 games to claw within 7 ½ games of Texas.
As of now, it appears to be the Rangers’ division to lose. Led by Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero, they have one of the best offenses in baseball. Their starting pitching has been decent but it got a huge boost with the addition of Cliff Lee, who will give them an undisputed ace with experience pitching in big games. The Angels figure to have a better shot than Oakland but they will need to start hitting and improve on their .257 team batting average. The bold acquisition of pitcher Dan Haren shows they haven’t given up. Despite this persistence, they can be expected to eventually fall short of Texas. The line at www.sportsbook.com on the Angles winning the AL West is +1500, and for a team who has won the division so many times as a baseball bettor you know they know how to win it.
AL Central: With three teams bunched within two games of the division lead, this may be the tightest division in all of baseball. The Chicago White Sox hold a very tenuous one game lead over Minnesota, with Detroit two back.
This one figures to be competitive all the way to the end as none of the three teams have a distinct advantage. The White Sox seem to be the most well rounded of any team, led by three very powerful bats and a well-balanced starting rotation. However, it’s been a few years since they’ve been in contention so there’s no telling how the inexperienced players will respond to the added pressure. Led by two of the best players in the American League, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, Minnesota knows what that feeling is like, too, having missed the playoffs every year since 2006. The Tigers have an MVP and Triple Crown candidate in Miguel Cabrera and will be desperately trying to atone for last year’s late-season collapse; the biggest question mark for them is inexperienced starting pitching. This division is so hard to call and it may even come down to the last day but in the end, I give a slight edge to Minnesota.
AL East: Few people would argue with the opinion that this is the best division in baseball, especially with three teams who can call themselves championship contenders. Unfortunately, only a maximum of two can make it to the playoffs so either New York, Boston, or Tampa Bay will be left out. The Yankees are currently in control of the division and it would be hard to envision them missing the playoffs altogether. They currently have the best record in baseball to go along with a potent lineup, a good corps of starting pitchers, and the best closer in baseball. Tampa Bay is three games behind them and holds baseball’s second best record. The Rays starting pitching has been outstanding and if their offensive production increases just a little, they could challenge the Yankees. The real unlucky team in this division is the Red Sox, who are eight games back but would be leading the AL Central with their 55-44 record.
The Red Sox could make a run at the division but in the end, their best chance will be to win the wild card. Their line at www.sportsbook.com is +3000 to win the AL East this year, which is a very intriguing baseball bet. If they do end up as the wild card that leaves the Yankees and Rays for the division and I smell an upset here. The Rays have been one of the top two teams in baseball thus far with an offense that has largely underachieved. If players like Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton, and Jason Bartlett can get things going, the Rays will win at a greater pace than before. The Yankees just lost Andy Pettitte to the DL and it’s unclear how long he’ll be out; he has been the Yankees best pitcher and his absence could really hurt. Also, the Yankees are an older team and in the past, they’ve begun to rest players once it’s clear they’ll make the playoffs. If they clinch a playoff spot early and the past holds, they may ultimately not care if they’re the AL East champion or Wild Card winners.
Wild Card: That effectively leaves the Red Sox and Yankees for the wild card.
Although other teams are within range of the Red Sox, it’s unlikely that they’ll sustain the same pace for an entire year. The Red Sox have tremendous team power and a good group of starting pitchers but they’ve simply had too many injuries this year. Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett were supposed to be big contributors on the mound but have missed significant time, as have Jacoby Ellsbury and former MVP Dustin Pedroia. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Red Sox make a run but the injuries have caused a deficit to the Yankees that will ultimately be too much to overcome.
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