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MLB News
MLB: Add Umpires to Baseball Betting Portfolio
2010-06-07
This baseball season, umpires have been in the news a bit more often than usual. Joe West called out the Yankees and Red Sox for slow play in April, as most of their games go right up against a 240 minute hour glass. And just last week Jim Joyce cost Detroit’s Armando Galarraga a place in baseball history by missing a call that would have given him the 21st perfect game ever. It’s clear that umpires have a big hand in the result of games, and thus should be part of your handicapping routine. Fortunately, Sportsbook.com has the tools you need to keep track of this important aspect in its UMPIRE REPORT, updated daily.
Sharp baseball bettors take the time to study or at the very least know whose working behind the dish to understand what kind of influence they may have on the outcome of a game.
This is especially true for baseball bettors who playing totals. Umpiring is more standardized today with the use of modern equipment to see how consistent an umpire is in calling balls and strikes, compared to the old days when the National League was known a “high ball” league and American League was known as a “low ball” league based on how they wore their chest protectors.
Those days are gone, however each umpire interprets the strike zone differently and it tends to be somewhat of a moving target.
This is where you find some are liberal with the zone and their games tend to be lower scoring, while others are smaller, either by width or height and the games they call behind the plate are often higher scoring with pitchers having to catch more of plate which gives batters a better choice of pitches to hit.
Here are the umpires that have called the highest percentage of Over contests this season.
Games OVER the total (Pushes not listed)
Angel Campos 9-2
Tim Welke 9-2
Angel Hernandez 9-3
Mike Reilly 8-3
Sam Holbrook 6-2
Next are the umps that have called the most Under the oddsmakers total.
Games UNDER the total (Pushes not listed)
Jim Wolf 10-1
Bob Davidson 10-2
Bruce Dreckman 9-2
Dan Iassogna 9-3
One aspect that has to be considered is who and the types of pitchers involved. If the men in shirtsleeves this time of year have No. 4 or 5 starters on consistent basis and they have tighter strike zone to begin with, needless to say the chances of a higher scoring game go up. Conversely, if an umpire draws the top pitchers from the various teams and normally gives the hurler the benefit of the doubt to begin with, than he’s more inclined to have games flying Under the number.
One further point of consideration is the record of an umpire in home or away situations. This generally is less important, nevertheless extreme cases should be part of the decision-making process.
These guys are human and are going to be influenced by their surroundings, a juiced up home crowd could sway decisions, just like what happens in basketball to officials. Other umps might be a touch “prickly”, and go out of their way to give the visitor the benefit of the doubt.
You can’t help but notice the home team is 12-0 with Ted Tichenor behind the plate in a home ball park in 2010. Others with figures supporting the club that bats last are Tim McClelland 11-2, Gerry Davis 10-3, Brian O’Nora 10-3, Greg Gibson 10-3 and Jerry Meals 10-3.
Those that have the opposite numbers with the visiting team coming out ahead are Ed Rapuano 9-2 (visitors record), Marvin Hudson 8-3, plus Bob Davidson and Laz Diaz at 9-4.
The idea isn’t to base a baseball wager on the outcome of what an umpire’s record is on totals or sides, but to understand that they can and do influence the outcome of games. Mixed with other key information, they are part of the fabric of the game and baseball wagering.
MLB: Yankees uncertain favorite in Game 2
2009-10-29
Game 2 of the 2009 World Series is set for Thursday in New York, with the hosts down 1-0 after last night’s 6-1 Philadelphia triumph. The Phillies are in search of their second straight title, and took a big step towards that goal in winning the opener. Tonight, they’ll send Pedro Martinez to the hill to face A.J. Burnett. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have installed the Yankees as a huge -200 favorite, crazy considering how poorly they played in Game 1.
The New York Yankees were left utterly dumbfounded in Game 1. Chase Utley battled C.C. Sabathia in two at bats, following off strikes until the lefthander got just a bit too much of the plate and rifled two shots over the right field wall. Cliff Lee did the rest, in stifling New York on one run and six hits for complete game gem, which included 10 strikeouts and zero walks. Lee was seemingly in his own world on the mound with a pair of unusual fielding plays that he was almost flippant about.
New York hitters had nary a clue what to do with Lee and they hope to have much better success against Pedro Martinez or their suddenly dwindling chances of winning the Fall Classic will take another severe hit. What’s the big deal about losing the first game? The winner of Game 1 of the World Series has won seven straight World Series, 11 of the last 12 and 12 of 14 with the introduction of the wild card teams.
A.J. Burnett will be asked to do his best Lee-imitation. In his first season in the Pinstripes, Burnett is 13-9 with a 4.04 ERA and has not picked up a decision in the postseason with two decent starts and one pretty good beating. The concern for manager Joe Girardi is Burnett’s command. After posting an almost 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio during the regular season, the former Florida Marlin has 13 K’s and 10 W’s in three playoff appearances. Sportsbook.com has New York has -200 favorite with total of Un9 and the Yankees have won 11 of 13 in this spot with Burnett on the hill at home.
Doubts were expressed about Philadelphia feeling any pressure, being the defending champions. The numbers said the Phillies were underdogs coming into the series, which just added another log on the fire. No home field advantage for the second straight year, having the best road record in baseball at 52-34 takes care of that.
Pedro Martinez will attempt to squeeze what is left out of his right arm. Martinez is 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA since joining the Phillies and pitched seven shutout innings against the Dodgers in 2-1 loss that the bullpen gave away.
Philadelphia has owned October and will attempt to do same in November as they are 19-5 in the postseason the last two years and 27-11 after allowing four runs or less four straight games.
Coming into the series, two elements were deemed very important in determining the outcome. Who could jack the most balls over the wall from these power-laden clubs would affect the outcome and Chase Utley answered that one. Also, getting the starting pitchers out of the game and see how the relief pitchers would perform. What chance New York had late in the game was swept out to the Hudson River, with the Yanks pen rocked for four runs in the last two innings.
FOX has Game 2 beginning at 7:55 Eastern and the last five meetings between these teams in New York have produced five Unders.
The StatFox Power Line indicates Yankees -155, a sign that Sportsbook is asking bettors to overpay if they want that side of the game.
MLB Series Betting- Houston at St. Louis
2009-07-31
Coming into the season, the Houston Astros were among the more interesting teams in baseball. They had a veteran cast of players who had been involved in several pennant races and because of budget restrictions, general manager Ed Wade had to assemble a starting pitching staff by going thru the scrap heap. Oddsmakers weren’t impressed and hung 73.5 for a win total on Houston, however with roughly two months to go in the season; the Astros (51-51, +0.9 units) are hovering around .500 and within striking distance like they have been in the five years in the NL Central. Be sure to check the latest info for weekend series by visiting the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages.
Houston’s season has taken many twists and turns and presently they are in downward spiral, having lost five of six. They arrive in St. Louis (56-49, 0 units) to face a club that almost swept the best team in the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers, in four games. The Cardinals pitching was fantastic against L.A., allowing six runs in 36 regulation innings and two runs in seven extra frames. Last night’s 10-inning loss to the Dodgers dropped the Cards out of first place for the moment. St. Louis enters the weekend having played the most games in the big leagues and manager Tony LaRussa has to be thrilled his club will be off Monday and Thursday next week, for a well deserved break.
Houston will trot out one its elder statesmen Brian Moehler (7-6, 5.16 ERA) in the series opener. The 37-year old right-hander became a starter again last season in Houston and had found a groove in allowing three earned runs or less in eight straight starts, before being roughed up by the New York Mets for five runs in his last turn. Moehler’s skill has been his ability to keep his team in the game and the Astros are 20-11 in night games when he pitches the last two years.
The Cardinals will come from the opposite direction, recalling rookie Mitchell Boggs (1-0, 3.22) from Triple-A Memphis. Boggs was up with St. Louis in April and part of May and started to struggle. He’s earned this promotion according to manager Tony La Russa, conceding one run in last 21 innings over three starts. “I think he’s pitched effectively down there,” La Russa told the team’s official Web site. Sportsbook.com has the St. Louis has -180 money line favorites in the opener, with the total Ov9. The Cards are 7-1 in recent Game 1’s and 12-3 as home favorites. Don’t give up completely on Houston, since they have won Moehler’s last five road starts and are 4-0 when he’s been listed as underdog.
Game 1 Edge: St. Louis
Both bullpens came into this series weary for different reasons. St. Louis had two extra inning games with the Dodgers and Houston’s was slapped around by the Cubs. The middle conflict of this NL Central showdown is likely to see the pens get some rest with two strong pitchers. Wandy Rodriguez (10-6, 2.65) has to be sad to see the calendar flip to August, after sensational July. In five starts, the left-hander was 4-0 (Astros 5-0) with microscopic 0.75 ERA. He’s among the better values as starter at +6.45 units.
The Cardinals will counter with their ace Chris Carpenter (9-3, 2.19). The New Hampshire native hasn’t always had his best stuff like last Monday on ESPN, but he steers clear of trouble, being able to find one of his assortment of pitches to take care of hitters. St. Louis is 21-7 in Carpenter’s Game 2 starts and 39-12 if he pitches at Busch Stadium.
Game 2 Edge: St. Louis
The Cardinals role as favorite in the last game of the series will be determined by who pitches for the ‘Stros. Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.61) left Tuesday's game with a lower back strain and received a pain-killing injection on Wednesday. If he feels well enough, Oswalt will give it a go. If not, Bud Norris will make his first Major League starting appearance. Norris allowed one run in three innings in his debut Wednesday against the Cubs. Baseball America has the 24-year old as the second best prospect in the Houston organization. He has 92-96 MPH fastball and a plus-curveball.
The only thing Adam Wainwright (12-6, 2.80) needs is a saddle. The Redbirds workhorse has pitched a minimum of six innings in last 20 starts (seven innings or more in seven of last nine trips to mound) and has surpassed the 110-pitch count 10 times in 2009. Wainwright and the Cards are 8-2 versus the NL Central, yet is surprisingly 6-6 at home. This will be the only day game of the series, with St. Louis 20-19 and Houston 17-15.
Game 3 Edge: St. Louis
Houston swept the Cards earlier in July during one of its hot spells. The Astros have also been swept in St. Louis this season and have lost nine of last 11 contests near The Arch. Our guest cappers are 3-0 and Hurricane Bill of Playbook will try to keep the streak alive.
“A big weekend match-up finds a pair of NL Central contenders heading in opposite directions as the struggling Houston Astros, losers of 5 of their last 6, travel to St. Louis to take on Cardinal squad that is coming off a series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. To make matters worse for the visitors is they arrive short-handed with main offensive weapon, Lance Berkman, on the DL and ace Roy Oswalt experiencing back stiffness and in danger of missing Sunday’s finale. The hosts, on the other hand, look to be firing on all cylinders as new additions Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa and Julio Lugo are all making significant contributions. The Cards also have the luxury of having their big two, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, on the hill in this series and will be heavy favorites in all three games. Though we prefer to wager on dogs we cannot recommend a play on these bite-less ‘Stros. We’ll look for a St. Louie sweep, as they put another nail in Houston’s coffin.”
Sportsbook.com series odds: Houston +220, St. Louis -300
StatFox Edge Pick: St. Louis
MLB: Why can’t New York beat Boston?
2009-06-10
It’s the biggest rivalry in all of baseball, Boston and New York, but in 2009 the series has become one-sided. The Red Sox have dominated the Yankees this year, winning all six meetings between the teams, including Tuesday’s 7-0 decision in Fenway. Tonight, the teams will go at it again, with New York sending struggling Chien-Ming Wang to the hill to face Tim Wakefield. Not surprisingly, the Sox are a -130 favorite and most of the top betting info available favors them. Find much of it on today’s GAME MATCHUP.
One of the main reasons Boston has had success against New York this season is David Ortiz. In the midst of a brutal hitting year overall, Ortiz has found success against the Yankees, going 7 for 23 (.304) with a home run, seven RBIs and four runs scored in six games.
Ortiz hit a two-run homer in a 7-0 win in the series opener Tuesday night as the Red Sox improved to 6-0 against the Yankees franchise for the first time since 1912. They beat the New York Highlanders 14 consecutive times to open that season, including the first-ever game at Fenway Park.
The Yankees would likely feel better if they weren't limited to a season-low two hits while getting shut out for the first time Tuesday.
Making Yankees’ fans even more nervous for Wednesday’s game is the performance of starter Chien-Ming Wang so far in ‘09 (0-3, 14.46 ERA). However, Wang is 6-5 with a 4.82 ERA in his career against the Red Sox, and the Yankees have won five of his last six starts in the series.
Tim Wakefield (7-3, 4.50) will oppose Wang. The right-handed knuckleballer bounced back from one of his worst starts of the season by holding Detroit to three runs over 6 2-3 innings of a 6-3 road victory Thursday.
Wakefield is 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts at Fenway Park this year. He's 0-5 with a 7.56 ERA over his last seven home starts against the Yankees.
So besides Ortiz, what are some of the other reasons New York has struggled against Boston? Take a look at some of these top StatFox Matchup Power Trends that might reveal some reasons:
* NY YANKEES are 11-19 (-13.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 4.7, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 1*)
* NY YANKEES are 17-28 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 3.8, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)
Basically what these angles are saying is that teams that draw walks are scoring well over 6 runs per game on New York, and against good bullpens, the Yankees aren’t able to produce the late rallies they’ve become well known for.
On the opposite side, the strengths of New York seem to fit Boston to a tee:
* BOSTON is 20-5 (+13.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 5.8, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 2*)
* BOSTON is 23-5 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 6.3, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 2*)
New York has to hope it can get to Wakefield early tonight, and avoid having to rally late against the Sox’ bullpen, a unit that has allowed just one earned run in its last 17-1/3 innings. If not, lucky #7 in a row for the home figures to be the result at Fenway tonight.
Catch this game on your cable or DirecTv service tonight by tuning in to ESPN at 7:00 PM ET.
MLB: Betting on All-Expense Paid Trip to Tampa
2008-09-30
The Chicago White Sox didn’t seem like a team that could thrive in the clutch after being swept by the Minnesota Twins last week. Their last two games, however, tell a different story. After prevailing in consecutive must-win games, the White Sox (88-74, +6.6 units) face the Twins (88-74, +10) in a one-game tiebreaker for the AL Central title Tuesday night at U.S. Cellular Field.
Chicago was swept in a three-game series at Minnesota, falling one-half game behind the Twins in the AL Central and starting a string of five straight losses entering its final two scheduled games. But the White Sox beat Cleveland 5-1 on Sunday and won a rainout makeup with Detroit 8-2 on Monday to force one last game with the Twins. The winner of this contest will advance to face AL East champion Tampa Bay in a best-of-five series beginning Thursday.
“(Tuesday), 162 games mean nothing. It’s only about one game and that’s great,” White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said. “A good feeling.”
Alexei Ramirez set a rookie record with his fourth grand slam to lead Chicago versus the Tigers. The second baseman is batting .340 (18-for-53) with two home runs in 14 games against the Twins, but Chicago hit .216 and scored only 11 runs in last week’s series. Those games were played at Minnesota, where Chicago went 1-8 this season. But the White Sox have won seven of nine games against the Twins at U.S. Cellular Field.
Chicago won a coin flip held earlier this month to decide which team would host the tiebreaker, perhaps catching a break due to its struggles at Minnesota. The Twins have also struggled on the road, going 2-7 at U.S. Cellular Field and 35-46 (-8.6 units) overall. Minnesota is also 11-31 in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game in the second half of the season over the last two years.
“We know where we’re going, and we know what we’ve got to do,” Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said.
John Danks (11-9, 3.47 ERA)—starting on three days’ rest—is one of the few members of the White Sox who’ve had a tough time at home against Minnesota. He is 1-2 with a 7.45 ERA in four starts versus the Twins at Chicago, and 2-3 with a 6.88 ERA in seven starts overall. And it doesn’t help that Danks is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing seven runs and seven hits in four innings as Chicago lost 11-8 to Cleveland on Friday night and he and the Pale Hose are 6-13 in home night games the last two seasons. The 23-year-old left-hander went 1-0 with a 0.98 ERA in his previous three starts.
Twins catcher Joe Mauer and first baseman Justin Morneau have been particularly successful against Danks, going 8-for-12 (.667) and 7-for-16 (.438), respectively.
Morneau went 0-for-3 with two walks for Minnesota in a 6-0 win over Kansas City on Sunday, finishing 3-for-23 on a six-game homestand and enters this game in a 6-for-38 slump. Morneau needs one RBI Tuesday to match Josh Hamilton of Texas for the AL RBI lead with 130. Possibly the day off will help Morneau and others, with the Twins 15-3 with a day’s rest.
Mauer, meanwhile, went 2-for-5 to keep his AL-leading average at .330, and has a four-point lead over Boston’s Dustin Pedroia. He would have to go 0-for-7 or worse to lose what would be his second AL batting title in three seasons. “Like I’ve always said, we’re trying to do bigger things here. If we get to the playoffs and that happens, I’ll be a happy guy for sure,” Mauer said.
Mauer, whose 85 RBIs are the most ever by a Minnesota catcher, will be Nick Blackburn’s batterymate Tuesday. Blackburn (11-10, 4.14 ERA) is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA in three career road starts versus the White Sox, and 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA in five starts and one relief appearance against them overall.
Blackburn, though, earned a win against the White Sox in his last outing, giving up two runs and eight hits in five innings as Minnesota won 3-2 on Wednesday night. Despite the stakes at hand for this pressure-filled game, Blackburn isn’t going to change his approach. “I’m going to go out there with my game plan in my mind, and hopefully I can execute everything I can,” he said.
Sportsbook.com has established Chicago as -145 money line favorite, with the total at Un9.5. Besides the off day edge, Minnesota is 19-11 after allowing one run or less this season. Chicago can counter that with its hot bats, posting 17-4 record in home games after scoring eight runs or more this season.
The weather is expected to be cooler, however trends suggest runs should be scored. The White Sox are 14-4 OVER in home games vs. a starting pitcher like Blackburn who strikes out three or less batters. The Twins right-hander and his teammates are 7-0 OVER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
This will be the fourth one-game tiebreaker that has been played in the AL. The last such contest was in 1995, when Seattle beat the California Angels 9-1 for the AL West title. Last season, Colorado beat San Diego 9-8 in 13 innings in an NL wild-card tiebreaker game.
Chicago is trying to return to the postseason for the first time since winning the World Series in 2005. Minnesota, meanwhile, has a chance to make the playoffs after a one-year absence. TBS picks up the postseason action starting at 7:35 Eastern.
StatFox Power Line – Minnesota -108
MLB: Series Betting – Chicago White Sox at Detroit
2008-07-28
Two months ago, the Detroit Tigers were a ball club floundering, a rudderless ship, and as George Thoroughgood once sang, they seemed to have “no particular place to go.” Back in the latter stages of May, Detroit trailed the Chicago White Sox by 10 games. Since then, the offense has picked up, the pitching improved and the morale of team is like a General Motors division that just figured out how to knock-off the Toyota Hybrid Pruis.
The Tigers (52-49, -5.6 units) trail the front-running White Sox by 5.5 games and can further reduce this deficit by winning this series. Detroit is 9-5 in last 14 outings and has scored five or more runs in 10 of those contests. The hitting helps cover up other flaws, specifically in the bullpen. Another area which has steadily improved is infield defense. Miguel Cabrera was butcher at third base and is improving on the other side of the diamond at first and Carlos Guillen has settled in at third.
The White Sox (57-43, +10.6 units) are mediocre 4-6 in last 10 tries, as the starting pitching and bullpen has been battered. Only once in these games have Chicago hurlers been able to keep the opposition to under four runs, as they have allowed six or more runs seven times. While managers like Ozzie Guillen provide lip-service to this being only July, the White Sox next 10 games, all on the road, will help shape the rest of their season.
Gavin Floyd (10-6, 3.52, 1.198 WHIP) has matured as a pitcher for Chicago, being one of their most reliable starters this season. Floyd faced Detroit in back-to-back starts to open the season. He gave up a combined three runs in 13 1/3 innings to pick up his first two wins. The Pale Hose come into this series 24-10 against the money line after three or more consecutive home games this season.
Chicago will face of the offerings of Nate Robertson (6-8, 5.69, 1.542 WHIP) and they are 20-13 versus left-hand starters this season. Robertson exemplifies the inconsistency of Detroit this campaign, with performances more up and down than Amy Whinehouse. Sportsbook.com has the Tigers listed as -125 home favorites, with total at Ov10.5. Robertson and Detroit are only 2-13 (-13.0 Units) against the ML at home with a money line of -100 to -125. On a more positive note, the Motor City mashers are 21-8 when the total is 10 or higher this season.
Game 1 Edge: White Sox
A huge key to Jim Leyland’s club turning around was the stability Justin Verlander (8-9, 3.95, 1.236) finally found as the ace of the staff. Once lower than Ford stock with 2-9 record, Verlander is 6-0 in last eight starts (Tigers 7-1), with 2.30 ERA. In July, he’s been especially sharp, throwing 28 2/3 innings, allowing just 15 hits and seven runs. Chicago is 6-2 when facing the Tigers ace and would like to knock him around a bit and see what’s in Detroit’s bullpen. The White Sox are 19-7 vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season. Besides Floyd, John Danks (7-4, 3.03, 1.205) has been a pleasant surprise. Danks has four above average pitches; though none are a true out-pitch. He’s had much better command this season, accounting for his success. Thou he was roughed up for six runs in last outing, that was the first time in 18 starts Danks has allowed more than four earned runs. The Sox lefty will need A-Game, with the Tigers feasting on left-hand starters with 20-7 mark.
Game 2 Edge: Tigers
The series finale figures to be what starting pitcher can hang around the longest. Javier Vazquez (7-8, 4.80, 1.383) has always has the ability from “stuff” perspective to be an ace. He can throw in the mid-90’s, has usable change-up, however it’s his breaking stuff that makes or breaks him. When he spots it, Vazquez can be lights out, when not; it’s a carousel for opponents on the base paths. A great indicator of Vazquez problems, after not surrendering one home run in April, he’s allowed 18 since. Zach Miner (4-3, 3.73) failed to impress as starting pitcher in 2006 and has been relegated to long relief since. He’s has location problems with fastball (28 walks vs 24 strikeouts) and doesn’t trust his breaking pitches. He’s done a better job this season, and opponents are batting less than .240 against him, which earned him first start of the year last Monday, allowing no runs over six innings in pressure free 19-4 laugher. Manager Leyland is on record as saying if Miner wants to stay in rotation, throw breaking pitches for strikes. Chicago is 20-15 playing day baseball compared to Detroit’s 18-21.
Game 3 Edge: White Sox
The Tigers are 32-42 versus RH starters and will face them in bookends for this series. While not life of death, the importance of the AL Central showdown is not lost on either team. Chicago has won five of the nine games played this season and is 15-10 at Comerica Park the last three years. The biggest difference in these teams has been how they played in the division. The White Sox are 27-14 and Detroit 17-24. Putting all these factors together, will side with the Pale Hose to increase division lead over the Tigers and win series.
Sportsbook.com series odds: White Sox +130, Tigers -160
StatFox Edge Pick: Chicago
2008 Record – 7-5