MLB handicapping
In order to score a profit on a sport like baseball, the bettor must be up to date with all of the daily trends, MLB handicapping, statistics and tips.
Thanks for stopping by mlbhandicapping.com, the place that supplies the necessary information to consistently handicap baseball.
In order to score a profit on a sport like baseball, the bettor must be up to date with all of the daily trends, statistics and tips. You will be able to find all of that information and more right here, all season long.
News
MLB: Does money buy happiness in MLB?
2008-08-13
In no other professional sport is the difference between the have’s and the have not’s so magnified as it is in Major League Baseball. While revenue sharing plans have helped, in no way have they come close to evening the playing field. Still, in looking at the current standings in baseball, does it really matter? Should the bettor be concerned as to a team’s payroll? The following study reveals some interesting numbers as to how a team’s payroll relates to its success both on the field and at the betting window.
In conducting this study, I simply took a list of the current team payrolls in Major League Baseball and compared the rankings to the team won-lost marks and betting returns. To simply, I grouped the teams into three tiers, the Top 10, the Middle 10, and the Bottom 10. It should be noted that all team records are as of entering play on Tuesday.
Here’s a look at the Top 10 teams in terms of 2008 payroll.
Tier 1 Payroll Teams
Rank, Team, Payroll, W-L (%), ML Units
1. NY Yankees: $209,081,579, 63-56 (52.9%), -11.8 Units
2. Detroit: $138,685,197, 58-60 (49.2%), -12.6 Units
3. NY Mets: $138,293,378, 62-56 (52.5%), -7.7 Units
4. Boston: $133,440,037, 68-51 (57.1%), 5.6 Units
5. Chi White Sox: $121,152,667, 65-52 (55.6%), 9.6 Units
6. LA Angels: $119,216,333, 74-43 (63.2%), 23.8 Units
7. Chicago Cubs: $118,595,833, 71-47 (60.2%), 12 Units
8. LA Dodgers: $118,536,038, 59-59 (50.0%), -8.5 Units
9. Seattle: $117,993,982, 45-73 (38.1%), -29 Units
10. Atlanta: $102,424,018, 55-63 (46.6%), -16.2 Units
Total: 620-560 (52.5%), -34.8 Units
Tier 1 Team Summary: To no one’s surprise, the Yankees are far ahead of the pack in payroll at over $200M. Of course, their -11.8 units of loss for bettors this season are also 7th worst among the 30 clubs. Detroit is next highest in payroll, and 6th worst in betting return. As a whole, this collection of big market teams has combined to lose over 34 units of return for investors this season. Their 52.5% winning percentage ends up the highest of any of the three tiers, but the price tag attached certainly doesn’t justify it. Just on the surface, it seems that oddsmakers take payroll into serious consideration when building their lines. This group of clubs, other than Seattle and Atlanta, are often playing as overpriced favorites. Fading these teams consistently has produced a nice return.
Now, here are the Tier 2 teams with their respective payrolls, won-lost marks, and betting returns.
Tier 2 Payroll Teams
Rank, Team, Payroll, W-L (%), ML Units
11. St Louis: $100,624,450, 66-55 (54.5%), 12.6 Units
12. Toronto: $98,641,957, 60-59 (50.4%), -7.8 Units
13. Philadelphia: $98,269,881, 64-54 (54.2%), -2.5 Units
14. Houston: $88,930,415, 59-59 (50.0%), 6.8 Units
15. Milwaukee: $81,004,167, 68-51 (57.1%), 10.1 Units
16. Cleveland: $78,970,067, 53-64 (45.3%), -21.2 Units
17. San Francisco: $76,904,500, 50-67 (42.7%), -9.2 Units
18. Cincinnati: $74,277,695, 52-67 (43.7%), -19.7 Units
19. San Diego: $73,677,617, 46-72 (39.0%), -30 Units
20. Colorado: $68,655,500, 53-67 (44.2%), -19.8 Units
Total: 571-615 (48.1%), -80.7 Units
Tier 2 Team Summary: The Tier 2 teams are a mostly collection of the league’s most disappointing teams of 2008, Cleveland, San Diego, and Colorado most notably. Miwaukee is the biggest shining star on this list, playing 17-games over .500 with the league’s 15th biggest payroll. Overall though, this tier of teams has proven to be the most futile when it comes to producing at the betting window. Only the three teams from the N.L. Central Division, St. Louis, Houston, and Milwaukee have produced positive returns for their backers. It seems that “not going the extra mile” with these clubs’ rosters has taken its toll.
Finally, here are the Tier 3 clubs and their performance marks.
Tier 3 Payroll Teams
Rank, Team, Payroll, W-L (%), ML Units
21. Texas: $68,239,551, 61-58 (51.3%), 14.4 Units
22. Baltimore: $67,196,248, 56-61 (47.9%), 3 Units
23. Arizona: $66,202,713, 60-58 (50.8%), -9.8 Units
24. Minnesota: $62,182,767, 66-52 (55.9%), 17.8 Units
25. Kansas City: $58,245,500, 54-64 (45.8%), -0.9 Units
26. Washington: $54,961,000, 44-75 (37.0%), -18.7 Units
27. Pittsburgh: $49,365,283, 54-64 (45.8%), 1.8 Units
28. Oakland: $47,967,126, 54-63 (46.2%), -10.8 Units
29. Tampa Bay: $43,820,598, 71-46 (60.7%), 20.4 Units
30. Florida: $21,836,500, 62-57 (52.1%), 16.8 Units
Total: 582-598 (49.3%), +34 Units
Tier 3 Team Summary: With six teams producing positive returns at the betting window, and one other within -1 unit, the Tier 3 teams, or the lowest payroll group, have been the most rewarding thus far in 2008. In fact, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Florida, and Texas rank 1st through 4th on the list of MLB teams in betting return. These are clubs whose unproven players have truly come up big in ’08, and consequently, they currently find themselves in the thick of the pennant races. Again, with this group, it seems that oddsmakers have pre-adjusted their lines this season based upon the team’s payrolls. It’s refreshing however to see that not only are these clubs producing big dollars at the betting window (+34 units of return), a few of them are also potential playoff clubs currently leading their respective divisions.
I guess to answer the title question then, it seems there is only a marginal improvement in winning percentage for a larger payroll, while the majority of strong betting return comes from spotting those live underdogs with the diminutive bankrolls.
MLB: Obvious & Powerful System backs Brewers, Sabathia
2008-08-13
The Milwaukee Brewers will be in search of their eighth consecutive win Wednesday when they visit the San Diego Padres for Game 2 of their 3-game set. Milwaukee (-200) sends its new ace, C.C. Sabathia, to the hill and is backed by a powerful StatFox Super Situation that boasts a 60-7 won-lost mark. Here’s more on the potent system plus a preview of tonight’s contest.
The Brewers are on a mission to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982 and have shown it over the last seven contests as they have outscored their opponents, 42-11. The road has also become an advantage of late, as Tuesday's 5-2 victory gave Milwaukee its 12th win in the last 15 games away from Miller Park. This is in stark contrast to recent seasons’ performances where the Brewers struggled horribly away from home.
As a result of their recent surge, the Brewers have been able to pull within 3-games of the Cubs for the N.L. Central Division lead. Perhaps more importantly, they have gained a 4-game separation from St. Louis for the wildcard lead.
C.C. Sabathia (12-8, 3.11 ERA) will get the call for the Brewers, looking to post a second consecutive shutout. The hefty lefthander is 6-0 with a 1.58 ERA in seven starts since moving over to the National League on July 7. Sabathia is already tied for the NL lead in complete games with four - matching teammate Ben Sheets.
The combination of the hefty chalk line on Milwaukee, San Diego’s recent hitting woes, and Sabathia’s dominance, lead to a StatFox system that seems obvious on the surface, but has been even more potent than the average bettor might realize. Here is it:
* Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SAN DIEGO) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. (60-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (89.6%, +44.5 units. Rating = 4*)
San Diego’s offensive struggles are well documented, and the main reason the club has fallen to 46-73 on the season. Discounting the past weekend series at stat-padding Colorado, the Padres have not exceeded the 5-run mark in any of their last 10 games. For the season at Petco Park, San Diego is batting just .234 while scoring just 3.5 runs per game. As a result, they are just 25-35 for a bankroll-crushing -17.2 units as hosts.
On the mound, the Padres will counter Sabathia with rookie Josh Banks (3-4, 3.77). The 26-year-old righthander has not factored in the decision in either of his last two outings despite allowing four earned runs in 12 combined frames.
Historically, Sabathia has throttled poor clubs, going 87-35 for +34.5 units throughout his career against teams outscored by 0.5 run or more per game. There are a couple of other significant trends indicating to fade San Diego as well:
* SAN DIEGO is 14-25 (-13.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.8, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
* SAN DIEGO is 5-17 (-11.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.2, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Game time for this contest is 10:05 PM ET. StatFox Edge: Brewers -200.
MLB: When bad teams are favored
2008-08-13
For every great matchup on a given Major League Baseball day, there are two less appealing contests. In a bettor’s world, all of the games mean the same, so ignoring the likes of Cincinnati-Pittsburgh, or Baltimore-Cleveland can prove damaging to one’s bankroll. This is especially the case on days like Tuesday, when the Reds and Indians will be playing as favorites. It seems though that the public has taken notice, with more folks at Sportsbook.com betting the underdogs in early action. Though both games boast similar lines, they set up rather differently. Take a look.
In Pittsburgh, the Reds are favored for one reason: Edison Volquez. Oddsmakers are clearly giving Volquez the benefit of the doubt here, despite the fact that his club has dropped nine of its L10 games while the Pirates have played with heart over the past week. In fact, just yesterday, Pittsburgh rallied for three runs in the ninth inning to upend the heavily favored Mets in an afternoon contest at Shea. Ironically, Volquez’s own recent struggles have mirrored the teams, as he has been hit hard in his last three outings, allowing 15 runs in 15-1/3 innings. He has also lost twice to Pittsburgh in as many outings this season.
Also seemingly being ignored here is the fact that Cincinnati has been awful on the road at 21-36, while Pittsburgh has defended its home field well, going 32-26 thus far for +7.2 units.
Overall for the season, Pittsburgh leads the head-to-head series, 6-3, including 3-0 at home. Two of the wins came in the most recent matchups in early July, leading to a strong StatFox Super Situation for tonight’s game:
Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (CINCINNATI) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, a bad team (38% to 46%) playing a team with a losing record. (96-58 since 1997.) (62.3%, +46.8 units. Rating = 3*)
Game time for this contest is 7:10 PM ET. Cincinnati is a questionable -110 favorite, and the total is set at U8.5 -125.
In the other aforementioned contest, Cleveland hosts Baltimore and opened as a -125 favorite in the contest. The Indians have played better of late, winning four straight games. In fact, one more win tonight will match their season high winning streak. It remains to be seen whether or not its too early to start jumping back on this bandwagon. The Tribe remains 11-games under .500 and 12-1/2 games out of first in the A.L. Central Division, behind all four other teams.
Yesterday’s 13-8 win by Cleveland in the opening game of this series actually sets up Cleveland for a number of powerful trend scenarios. Here are a few of those:
BALTIMORE is 1-11 (-10.2 Units) against the money line after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more in a game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 3.3, OPPONENT 6.5 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND is 19-3 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in home games after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 6.7, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)
Tonight’s pitchers are a pair of left-handers in Garrett Olson for the O’s and Jeremy Sowers for the Indians. Neither pitcher warrants a whole lot of respect from oddsmakers and each averages less than 5-2/3 innings per start, so this one might wind up being determined in the late innings.
StatFox Edges: Pittsburgh, Cleveland
MLB: Anemic A’s up Against Stellar System
2008-08-07
All baseball teams go thru droughts during the course of a major league baseball season and can’t swing the bat and hit a beach ball thrown five feet from them. In Oakland, it’s not a slump, it’s an epidemic. The Athletics have plummeted faster then a watermelon thrown off a roof top by David Letterman for The Late Show.
The A’s have lost nine in a row (-9.95 units), as Oakland’s slumping bats haven’t scored more than three runs in any game in this streak. On July 11th, the Athletics trailed the Los Angeles Angels by four games and were in the thick of pennant contention for the division and wild card races. After losing 18 of next 20, they are closer to last place Seattle than to the heavenly scent of first place the Angels hold.
Oakland has averaged 2.65 runs while hitting .214 in its last 20 games, and Justin Duchscherer (10-7, 2.33, 0.956 WHIP) has been the unfortunate recipient on four such occasions during this stretch, even though the right-hander has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his outings. One more loss makes it an even 10 defeats, which would be worst stretch since April 19-30, 1994, when they lost a dozen straight.
Toronto in turn seeks first ever four-game sweep of odious Oakland and sends A.J. Burnett up the hill to complete the task. Burnett (13-9, 4.57, 1.437) has won five of last six starts, allowing two or less runs in four of those opportunities. Though lacking a superlative home earned run average (4.86), Burnett and the Blue Jays have won 8 of his 11 starts at the Rogers Centre. Sportsbook.com has established Toronto as -109 money line favorites, with total Un7.
All of these factors roll together like making bread, setting up the possibility of earning real quality dough from a FoxSheets Super System.
PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (OAKLAND), who are bad AL offensive team, scoring 4.2 runs per game or less, against a team with a very good bullpen (3.33 ERA or less), with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start.
This system is a dazzling 26-6, 81.2 percent since 2004 and has many other supporting angles. Toronto is 14-4 vs. a starting pitcher like Duchscherer, who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start this season and is even better 12-1 in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last two years.
The Blue Jays are 15-5 against the money line after allowing three runs or less three straight games this season, thanks to a bullpen that has the best ERA in baseball at 2.97, potentially further diminishing the chances of the Athletics busting out of horrendous hitting period. Oakland is 3-18 on the road after scoring four runs or less four straight games since the beginning of 2006 campaign.
Opening pitch is scheduled for 7:07 Eastern and can be seen in local markets and on MLB.TV. Hard not to ride such a streak against the free-falling A’s.
