MLB: Series Betting – Chicago White Sox at Detroit
Two months ago, the Detroit Tigers were a ball club floundering, a rudderless ship, and as George Thoroughgood once sang
2008-07-28
Two months ago, the Detroit Tigers were a ball club floundering, a rudderless ship, and as George Thoroughgood once sang, they seemed to have “no particular place to go.” Back in the latter stages of May, Detroit trailed the Chicago White Sox by 10 games. Since then, the offense has picked up, the pitching improved and the morale of team is like a General Motors division that just figured out how to knock-off the Toyota Hybrid Pruis.
The Tigers (52-49, -5.6 units) trail the front-running White Sox by 5.5 games and can further reduce this deficit by winning this series. Detroit is 9-5 in last 14 outings and has scored five or more runs in 10 of those contests. The hitting helps cover up other flaws, specifically in the bullpen. Another area which has steadily improved is infield defense. Miguel Cabrera was butcher at third base and is improving on the other side of the diamond at first and Carlos Guillen has settled in at third.
The White Sox (57-43, +10.6 units) are mediocre 4-6 in last 10 tries, as the starting pitching and bullpen has been battered. Only once in these games have Chicago hurlers been able to keep the opposition to under four runs, as they have allowed six or more runs seven times. While managers like Ozzie Guillen provide lip-service to this being only July, the White Sox next 10 games, all on the road, will help shape the rest of their season.
Gavin Floyd (10-6, 3.52, 1.198 WHIP) has matured as a pitcher for Chicago, being one of their most reliable starters this season. Floyd faced Detroit in back-to-back starts to open the season. He gave up a combined three runs in 13 1/3 innings to pick up his first two wins. The Pale Hose come into this series 24-10 against the money line after three or more consecutive home games this season.
Chicago will face of the offerings of Nate Robertson (6-8, 5.69, 1.542 WHIP) and they are 20-13 versus left-hand starters this season. Robertson exemplifies the inconsistency of Detroit this campaign, with performances more up and down than Amy Whinehouse. Sportsbook.com has the Tigers listed as -125 home favorites, with total at Ov10.5. Robertson and Detroit are only 2-13 (-13.0 Units) against the ML at home with a money line of -100 to -125. On a more positive note, the Motor City mashers are 21-8 when the total is 10 or higher this season.
Game 1 Edge: White Sox
A huge key to Jim Leyland’s club turning around was the stability Justin Verlander (8-9, 3.95, 1.236) finally found as the ace of the staff. Once lower than Ford stock with 2-9 record, Verlander is 6-0 in last eight starts (Tigers 7-1), with 2.30 ERA. In July, he’s been especially sharp, throwing 28 2/3 innings, allowing just 15 hits and seven runs. Chicago is 6-2 when facing the Tigers ace and would like to knock him around a bit and see what’s in Detroit’s bullpen. The White Sox are 19-7 vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season. Besides Floyd, John Danks (7-4, 3.03, 1.205) has been a pleasant surprise. Danks has four above average pitches; though none are a true out-pitch. He’s had much better command this season, accounting for his success. Thou he was roughed up for six runs in last outing, that was the first time in 18 starts Danks has allowed more than four earned runs. The Sox lefty will need A-Game, with the Tigers feasting on left-hand starters with 20-7 mark.
Game 2 Edge: Tigers
The series finale figures to be what starting pitcher can hang around the longest. Javier Vazquez (7-8, 4.80, 1.383) has always has the ability from “stuff” perspective to be an ace. He can throw in the mid-90’s, has usable change-up, however it’s his breaking stuff that makes or breaks him. When he spots it, Vazquez can be lights out, when not; it’s a carousel for opponents on the base paths. A great indicator of Vazquez problems, after not surrendering one home run in April, he’s allowed 18 since. Zach Miner (4-3, 3.73) failed to impress as starting pitcher in 2006 and has been relegated to long relief since. He’s has location problems with fastball (28 walks vs 24 strikeouts) and doesn’t trust his breaking pitches. He’s done a better job this season, and opponents are batting less than .240 against him, which earned him first start of the year last Monday, allowing no runs over six innings in pressure free 19-4 laugher. Manager Leyland is on record as saying if Miner wants to stay in rotation, throw breaking pitches for strikes. Chicago is 20-15 playing day baseball compared to Detroit’s 18-21.
Game 3 Edge: White Sox
The Tigers are 32-42 versus RH starters and will face them in bookends for this series. While not life of death, the importance of the AL Central showdown is not lost on either team. Chicago has won five of the nine games played this season and is 15-10 at Comerica Park the last three years. The biggest difference in these teams has been how they played in the division. The White Sox are 27-14 and Detroit 17-24. Putting all these factors together, will side with the Pale Hose to increase division lead over the Tigers and win series.
Sportsbook.com series odds: White Sox +130, Tigers -160
StatFox Edge Pick: Chicago
2008 Record – 7-5
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