MLB: Why can’t New York beat Boston?

It’s the biggest rivalry in all of baseball, Boston and New York, but in 2009 the series has become one-sided. The Red Sox have dominated the Yankees this year, winning all six meetings between the teams, including Tuesday’s 7-0 decision in Fenway. Tonigh

2009-06-10

It’s the biggest rivalry in all of baseball, Boston and New York, but in 2009 the series has become one-sided. The Red Sox have dominated the Yankees this year, winning all six meetings between the teams, including Tuesday’s 7-0 decision in Fenway. Tonight, the teams will go at it again, with New York sending struggling Chien-Ming Wang to the hill to face Tim Wakefield. Not surprisingly, the Sox are a -130 favorite and most of the top betting info available favors them. Find much of it on today’s GAME MATCHUP.

One of the main reasons Boston has had success against New York this season is David Ortiz. In the midst of a brutal hitting year overall, Ortiz has found success against the Yankees, going 7 for 23 (.304) with a home run, seven RBIs and four runs scored in six games.

Ortiz hit a two-run homer in a 7-0 win in the series opener Tuesday night as the Red Sox improved to 6-0 against the Yankees franchise for the first time since 1912. They beat the New York Highlanders 14 consecutive times to open that season, including the first-ever game at Fenway Park.

The Yankees would likely feel better if they weren't limited to a season-low two hits while getting shut out for the first time Tuesday.

Making Yankees’ fans even more nervous for Wednesday’s game is the performance of starter Chien-Ming Wang so far in ‘09 (0-3, 14.46 ERA). However, Wang is 6-5 with a 4.82 ERA in his career against the Red Sox, and the Yankees have won five of his last six starts in the series.

Tim Wakefield (7-3, 4.50) will oppose Wang. The right-handed knuckleballer bounced back from one of his worst starts of the season by holding Detroit to three runs over 6 2-3 innings of a 6-3 road victory Thursday.

Wakefield is 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts at Fenway Park this year. He's 0-5 with a 7.56 ERA over his last seven home starts against the Yankees.

So besides Ortiz, what are some of the other reasons New York has struggled against Boston? Take a look at some of these top StatFox Matchup Power Trends that might reveal some reasons:

* NY YANKEES are 11-19 (-13.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 4.7, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 1*)
* NY YANKEES are 17-28 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 3.8, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)

Basically what these angles are saying is that teams that draw walks are scoring well over 6 runs per game on New York, and against good bullpens, the Yankees aren’t able to produce the late rallies they’ve become well known for.

On the opposite side, the strengths of New York seem to fit Boston to a tee:

* BOSTON is 20-5 (+13.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 5.8, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 2*)
* BOSTON is 23-5 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 6.3, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 2*)

New York has to hope it can get to Wakefield early tonight, and avoid having to rally late against the Sox’ bullpen, a unit that has allowed just one earned run in its last 17-1/3 innings. If not, lucky #7 in a row for the home figures to be the result at Fenway tonight.

Catch this game on your cable or DirecTv service tonight by tuning in to ESPN at 7:00 PM ET.